The four belligerent European presidents (Emmanuel Macron, Keir Starmer, Friedrich Merz and Donald Tusk) demanded a 30-day ceasefire from Vladimir Putin on May 10. Response from the Russian President: “On May 15, let’s start negotiating peace in Istanbul.”

The two approaches were very different. The warriors wanted to stop the war for a month in order to replenish Ukraine with weapons and to refresh and reorganize the army. Russia, for its part, was aiming to recover the peace agreement between Russians and Ukrainians that was thwarted by the US and Britain in 2022.

The two proposals were incompatible. The warriors wanted to break the war in order to conquer Russia. This, in turn, sought a negotiated end to the war, with the long-term deactivation of the causes that triggered the start of the shots.

The starting point clearly showed that he could not make any progress from the 2025 meeting in Istanbul. And so it was. The plausible step of exchanging a thousand prisoners that was achieved is something that they agree on from time to time, it is a humanitarian action that has already been carried out at least twice before. There was no other achievement at the meeting in Istanbul.

Has this failure been complete and irreversible? No, not at all. Because it's taken a step forward. This Ukrainian War, which lasted three years in February, is being very painful. It seems that the death toll has already exceeded the barrier of the million. Negotiations for peace have not been discussed in this long period of time. Three long years have passed since that draft agreement signed by the Ukrainians and Russians in April 2022 was thwarted by Joe Biden and Boris Johnson without giving the dialogue a chance. This time, it was enough for Vladimir Putin to open the door to the possibility of peace for both sides to sit around the table. And in the “next room”, representing Donald Trump, Emmanuel Macron, Keir Starmer, Friedrich Merz and Donald Tusk, USA, France, UK, Germany and Poland. It's a little ahead of time, baby!

The warriors wanted to set a trap for Vladimir Putin, but making fun of the Russians again will be impossible for the four warriors. They managed to trick him twice in Minsk and once again in Istanbul. There won't be another one. In this, the negotiations will proceed seriously, because Russia will establish seriousness. As has been shown in this Istanbul II. The 30-day truce has been overcome and you will have to talk about the substance from now on. In order to agree on a ceasefire, the first agreement on the relevant contents must be signed beforehand. Then there will be the possibility of silencing the weapons to agree on the rest of the substance.

If you look at what has been said publicly in these three years, you will have to talk about at least the following points: Ukraine and NATO; Ukraine and the EU. The demilitarization of Ukraine. Denationalization of Ukraine. The territory of Ukraine. The normalization of Russian language and Russian culture. Ukraine's new legal and political framework.

With all this on the table, demanding a ceasefire without any pre-agreement is a futile proposal. Because it makes no sense to demand a step that does not solve us, to want to silence the weapons without talking about all the pulp that is within these six points mentioned above. For it is useless to demand that those who are losing the war take a step that will only cause harm to those who are winning it with ease.

From point to point, the following clashes could be observed in the current situation that require negotiation:

1. Ukraine and NATO. Ukraine and the EU. Russia will not object to Ukraine's accession to the EU. But it is not known now whether the new government will want to enter the elections that will result in the end of the war. Ukraine's entry into NATO will never be accepted by Russia. This has been the first reason to launch this OMB.

2. The demilitarization of Ukraine. European warriors use Ukraine as a ram to start Russia. And they are about to invest large sums of money in the coming years to continue on this path. When the war began, there was no army in all of Europe with as many weapons as Ukraine. Russia hopes that such a situation will not recur in the future and proposes that the future Ukraine should have a small army.

3. Denationalization of Ukraine. The Nazis are a minority in Ukraine. But thanks to U.S. subsidies, they became powerful during the 2014 Maidan coup d’état. Since then they have been the ones who support the Ukrainian governments and they are the ones who fix their political line to the governments. And the European Union and the United States give them their full support. In order to be able to have democracy in the new Ukraine, Russia proposes to outlaw Nazism.

4. The territory of Ukraine. The post-war Ukraine will be different from the period of the Maidan coup d’état. In the West, Poland proclaims Galicia to him and it is very likely that Hungary and Romania will also claim those that have historically belonged to them. In the East, Russia already has Crimea, Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia and Kherson incorporated into its Constitution. Zelenski says that they are all part of Ukraine and that Russia must leave these lands. Nor does it intend to change anything in the West.

5. The normalization of Russian language and Russian culture. Russian is forbidden. The most widely spoken language in Ukraine is denied official status. It could not be used in schools, universities, all areas of administration. Books written in Russian have disappeared from the shops. Three-quarters of Ukrainians speak Russian well. Russia proposes the officiality of the Russian language so that the Ukrainians who want it can live according to the Russian culture.

6. The legal and political framework of Ukraine. What will be the legal and political framework of the new Ukraine? First, democratic elections must be held. To this end, all political parties, trade unions and the media that are currently banned must be legalized. The Orthodox Church too. A large number of political prisoners in prison will have to go home. This is something that will happen because Russia will win the war. The new government will have to decide the rest.

In addition to these six points, everything related to war crimes remains. The dissemination of information on all atrocities, the prosecution of Zelenski and other political and military officials, etc.

In relation to territoriality, there is another issue that could be raised on the table. Those who were still Ukraine in 2022 and the five regions (oblasts) that are currently integrated into Russia were incorporated into Russia through two self-determination referendums. Will the oblasts of Odessa, Nikolaev, Dnipropetrovsk, Kharkiv... not demand the same opportunity?

Joan Mari Beloki of the Cortex