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Limited changes and continuity in government

22 April 2024 - 13:22
Argazkia: EAJ

The CAV has a bilateral imperfect system: the PNV and EH Bildu have taken 27 seats, 72% of parliamentarians and 68% of votes. The sovereign left will achieve the best results in its history, it has been the first force in Gipuzkoa and Álava and has obtained about 345,000 votes. But, with the favorable wave, this was the minimum number of votes I could announce to him: 55,000 more than that obtained in the Foral Elections of 2023.

As we announced at the ARGIA election day, if the participation had been in the order of 60%, the support that EH Bildu has gained in seats and votes would have been enough to achieve the victory, but the participation has approached 63%. This meant in votes the victory of the PNV, and although EH Bildu could win in the seats, in the end he did not succeed, because participation has been uneven among countries. Bizkaia has been the territory in which it has participated most, where the PNV is better established. Nationalists have based their victory on the Greater Bilbao, brought EH Bildu a distance of 27,000 votes, almost everything he has brought out in the CAV.

"As the government has renewed an absolute majority, the PNV and the PSE are the main winners. Because that was the great electoral battle."

The results of the PSE are not so good given that they are in the Spanish Government and that they achieved victory in the previous elections with almost 300,000 votes. Nine months later they have achieved only half, although the confederal left has almost disappeared. The number of seats is far from 16 in 2012. But, from a qualitative point of view, it has been one of the main electoral winners. In the bilateral and central systems the third party gives an absolute majority, which gives it great power.

The Spanish right improves the results. The PP has taken the Spanish wave and got a seat more with sour sweet taste, as Vox, maintaining its representation, will not have the monopoly of the Unionist right.

Jon Podemos has been left out of parliament and Sumar has won a single Member. Between the two they took out 6%, if they had come together they would take between three and six seats, perhaps enough for the PNV-PSE to lose the absolute majority.

Because that was the great electoral battle. As the government has renewed an absolute majority, the PNV and the PSE are the main winners. This will have consequences on coalition logic games. Nationalists are assured in the medium term that they will remain the main pivot. Meanwhile, EH Bildu, despite the results of the electoral ecology, will have little chance of manoeuvre in the Basque Parliament, which has remained almost only on the left.

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