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Bizkaia: Is the strength of the PNV wobbling?

18 April 2024 - 07:30

The Santurtziarra Imanol Pradales will be the next president, the only one who has a clear answer between the questions of these elections. In addition, the PSE and PP will repeat or improve the previous results a little, and it remains to be clarified whether Sumar and We will get a representative. Although in recent years the sliding between two souls has been evident, few have understood the presentation of two lists that will lead to the bleeding of the vote.

So the things, the salt and the essence of the elections seems to be in the competition between the PNV and EH Bildu. Looking back, the former rower has a certain trainee advantage over the band led by Ima Garrastatxu. Apart from the exception of 1986, the PNV has always been the first force. Not only that, in seven of the twelve calls it has exceeded 40% of the vote, and in 11 the difference with the second force has been greater than 10%. In 2020, for example, he got almost twenty points to EH Bildu.

But let's come to the election competition this year. When political parties make a basic segmentation of the vote, they usually do the following distribution: faithful, received, weak, potential and remote voters. The key to success is to maintain the first three and attract potential. According to the Eitb Focus poll, EH Bildu will be the match that best activates these four voters. Together with the maintenance of the previous voters, the coalition led by Pello Otxandiano at CAV level, led by Pello Otxandiano, would get 10% of those who abstained in 2020, 16.3% of Podemos, 7.7% of the PNV and 4.7% of the PSE.

This is of great importance in Bizkaia, especially in the large urban areas where EH Bildu has weakened. In last year’s elections it grew especially in the Greater Bilbao, notably in several areas of the Left Margin. The municipality of Imanol Pradales is the most significant indicator of this change. In the 2011 municipal elections the PNV obtained 49.4% of the votes and Bildu 14% (15% adding Aralar). In 2023, on the other hand, the Jeltzales acquired 32% and the sovereign coalition 27%. Trends point to a new correlation of forces in the medium term.

Even though the strength of the PNV today has solid bases, its walls do not show the previous strength. Not keeping the distance of 10% with the second force would be a historic revolution that would leave the territory at the gates of a new political cycle. I would pay particular attention to Greater Bilbao because it will tell us whether EH Bildu has taken the potential vote and whether the PNV has activated its voter. In general there will be no surprises: the Santurtziarra Imanol Pradales will be the next president, but will he win in Santurtzi?

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