In the midst of a global economy marked by instability, war conflicts continue to be a lucrative factor for the major powers, thus making war an inevitable business for them. The study Military Spending and Economic Growth: a 2025 Update thus indicates a significant increase in the correlation between the proportion of military spending in GDP and economic growth. Between 1970 and 2023, there was an increase of 0.77 points in this correlation worldwide and 0.66 points in the United States between 1923 and 2024.

While noting the complexity of this linkage, the conclusion suggests that the increase in war investment may drive certain growth metrics, while also highlighting the interest of governments in maintaining a steady flow of resources to the war industry. In fact, Measuring Arms: The study, Introducing the Global Military Spending Dataset, confirms that the correlations between economic surplus and military spending have been greater than ever in the last two centuries, reinforcing the idea that large volumes of wealth from certain powers are strategically channelled into weapons production. It is true, however, that this study also points to the considerable limitations on access to data. Within COW’s National Military Capabilities (NMC) data, nearly 20% of historical records do not contain information on military spending.

However, this lucrative nature seems to be beneficial only to some countries. The Impact of Military Expenditures on Economic Growth: A New Instrumental Variables Approach, which collects data from 133 countries between 1960 and 2012, concludes that growth in military spending (on GDP) reduces economic growth in “developing” countries. In these cases, on average, an increase of 3.86 points in military spending can reduce the aforementioned growth by 4.40 points. The study emphasizes that, rather than benefiting the most disadvantaged, military spending often seems to lead to the exclusion of essential investments in education, health and infrastructure.

Particularly revealing is the positive correlation between military spending and economic growth, according to the Global Military Spending Dataset (GMSD) dataset, as global military spending has tripled over the peak of the Cold War. In this regard, it is again pointed out that economic and military interdependence (especially in the major Powers, which account for 75 per cent of the world ' s GDP) appears as an accelerated spiral: the larger the surplus, the more resources are allocated to arsenals.

These figures show that, behind the rhetoric of stability, there is a big business of war, driven by the largest economies, which find a way to maintain and increase their dominance even in war conflicts. Rather than simply a question of “security,” the arms race takes advantage of critical junctures (economic or geopolitical) to secure the profits of military industries, often at the expense of sacrificing development and peace for broad sections of the world’s population.