Reversing the Conservative Divide, Liberals Are Favored in Canada’s Parliamentary Elections
- Elections for Canada’s House of Commons will be held on Monday, after the date was advanced by Mark Caney, who has replaced former Prime Minister Trudeau. The change in the leadership of the Liberals has led to a significant reduction in the gap for the Conservatives, and most of the polls predict that they will emerge victorious in the votes. Trump’s threats of the trade war have played an important role in the election campaign, as have the car strikes in Vancouver on Sunday.
The resignation of Justin Trudeau in early January was conditioned by the situation, after having been prime minister since 2015: Trump’s threats since he was a White House tenant and the decline in the country’s economic growth significantly reduced his support for the Liberal Party among Canadians. Votes for the House of Commons were due at the end of October, with most polls predicting an easy victory for the Conservative Party.
Trudeau’s post, however, was taken by economist Mark Caney in March, who advanced the date of the Canadian lower house elections to April 28. Since then, the Liberals have been reducing the gap to the Conservatives: According to a survey conducted by the Nanos Research group, they would receive a margin of more than four points in their votes. This survey predicts that the Liberal Party will get 42.7% of the votes and the Conservatives 38.4%. In addition to these, in the House of Commons with 343 seats, the New Democratic NDP Party and the Quebec BQ Bloc would also be represented, obtaining 8.3% and 5.9% of the votes, respectively.
One of the keys of the elections will be the support that these last two parties receive, as it will determine whether or not the liberals will need support to govern. The format of the votes for the Canadian parliament is the same as that of the United Kingdom: the electorate does not directly elect the country ' s Prime Minister, but the deputies of the respective constituencies. In this way, the party that gets the most seats in the House of Commons is allowed to form a government.
Unable to sustain the economy under Trump’s threat
Canada has been one of the countries hardest hit by the trade war launched by U.S. President Donald Trump. The U.S. has 77 percent of the country’s exports as a destination, and the Trump administration announced the first tariffs on Feb. 1 that targeted Canadian aluminum, steel, and cars, along with those from China and Mexico. Ottawa, however, did not shy away from the 25% tariffs imposed by the House Belt and in response imposed the same percentage taxes on imported U.S. cars that do not meet the criteria of the Usmca trade treaty between the United States, Mexico and Canada.
Trump has repeatedly threatened to turn or annex Canada into the country’s 51st state, as he proposed to Prime Minister Caney in a call they both had on March 28, the chief of the liberals confirmed. In fact, the new White House tenant has played an important role in the parliamentary election campaign, having been at the center of numerous statements by candidates from the parties that have presented themselves. For example, at an event on Thursday, the current prime minister stated that in Monday's votes, Trump is at stake "to destroy Canada and take possession of the Canadians."
11 killed in car crash in Vancouver
In addition to Trump’s statements, another incident has taken center stage both in Canada and globally on the doorstep of the House of Commons votes: a car crash killed 11 people in Vancouver on Saturday at a festival being held on a street in the city. Police say the incident was not a "terrorist attack," and the Vancouver Sun newspaper has confirmed that the perpetrator had health problems.
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