It was invented by the media and polls and built in part from the first round of the French presidential elections. With the repeated victory of Marine Le Pen, most of them had in their imagination the step towards the second round of the National Front (FN). “To get in the way of the second round, who better?” or “what’s the worst?” were the strategic questions of the multiple, the vote utile. Listening to the media and polls, Emmanuel Macron, who stands in front of him, will be the new president of France on the night of May 7. According to the first polls, the liberal candidate who is neither left nor right would get 60% of the votes. It’s worth looking at the reality behind the numbers.

The FN normalized

The work of manual intervention by the media and polls has led to the normalization of the victory of the FN. On April 23, 2017, there was no fear or complaint of April 21, 2002. The realization of the result, repeated over and over again, has been devoured by the population, ignoring its bad taste. Because they're getting used to it. We are reminded that, for the first time in 2002, Jean-Marie Le Pen won the ticket for the second round, with Jacques Chirac on the right. Due to the truth, surprise, but what could be foreseen if the media were to pay attention to the issue of insecurity. The day after the first round of this period there has been no mobilisation to encourage right-wing extremism; there has been no mobilization to obstruct the other FN as there was then.

Red Need Message. The clearest example is the fact that the leftist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, who has collected 19.6% of the votes, did not call for obstruction of the far right. On the day after the first round of 2002, whether on the left or on the right, the first media pages were significant: “Where” Libération, “La bombe Le Pen”, France Soir, “Les leçons d’un désastre”, Le Nouvel Observateur... This is not the case in this period; with the exception of L’Humanité, most of them have prioritized the purely informative message, putting on the first page the face of Macron that they like very much. The xenophobia that the FN brings is no longer being warned. In the second round, Jacques Chirac won, with Jean-Marie Le Pen staying away with 17.5% of the votes. Even so, it seems that the same thing will happen.

Failure or slapping?

Despite the fact that no anti-xenophobic messages have been broadcast on the streets, it can be expected that they will be heard through the vote. But the important question is whether Le Pen is going to collect failure or failure to train. Because for the far-right candidate, the defeat and the slap are not the same. 20% is not 40%. Later on, the road to real victory would be more open with defeat, but it would also stop with the slap, that is, fast but not able to pass a bite. Given the feeling of “all are equal” and/or the rejection of the financial world represented by Macron, will all voters who do not want the far right take the step to block Le Pen on May 7? Especially after fifteen days of listening to Macron’s clear victory message. Or, they will give priority to the idea that “Le Pen will not pass, mine will not change anything”. The range of abstentionism will have an impact.

Always upwards in the Northern Basque Country

High, the results are there, the far right is strong, stronger than in the previous ones. There are also the voters of François Fillon (20.01%) and other unknown candidates who have spoken with the far-right discourse. Although Fillon, who has won one of the five voters, calls Macron to vote, he will not be seen by all his supporters (Complete against gay and lesbian marriage The Sens Commun movement showed support for Fillon, but for the second round he has not joined the call to obstruct Le Pen). Le Pen has raised 7.7 million votes, with an additional 1.2 million in five years.
The fact that the fourth force in the Northern Basque Country came out does not mean that it is not going to strengthen. It has collected 12.10% of the votes of Lapurdi, Bajoran and Zubero, with a total of 21,738 votes. That's 2,271 votes more than five years ago. In 2012 he made a real emendation, doubling his strength. Whether it’s a mountainside village or a seaside town, keep convincing new voters. For example, in Banka from 24 to 28, in Ezpeize-Ündürein from 37 to 48, in Maule from 150 to 160, in Saint-Jean-de-Luz from 892 to 961, in Bayonne from 2.485 to 3.068. There is no village where there has been no FNC supporter. They are also towns that have lost their votes (Ziburu, Baigar, Atharrar...), but the FN is generally on the rise in the Northern Basque Country.

The working class

Many do not see Macron as their representative, a candidate representing the financial world, a friend of businessmen/women and the mainstream media. He is considered a “candidate of the system” by Le Pen and it cannot be denied that he is. If we compare the map by socio-professional categories with the map of votes of these two candidates, they can be established almost on top of each other: class

Macron dominates in the position of the mid-high, in the position of the working class from Le Pen. Le Pen addresses the “Republics to the Forgotten”, getting the attention of those who have this feeling perfectly and making more and more people feel it within this qualifier. Macron has the working class to convince him at least. As far as the Northern Basque Country is concerned, this phenomenon is not confirmed: Mélenchon defeated Le Pen with 19.19% of the vote. For example, in the city of Maule, where the working class was fast, the first force came out, with 26.46%, and in Bokal the same, with 29.48%.

In the former colonies in the first

They have the same feeling of being forgotten in the former French colonies designated as departments and territories beyond DOM-TOM. With 21.9% of the votes, the FN is the one that has collected the most votes for the first time. Abstention has been a reflection of this sentiment, with 53% not voting and this has allowed the victory of Le Pen. In five years, it has more than doubled its results. In Mayotte, which has to respond to immigrants from neighboring islands, the FNC’s result has increased from 2.8% to 27.3% in five years!

The message of the door in the intestine creates as much fascination as in France in some DOM-TOM. Le Pen has messages as a weapon against the “elite system,” “Islamist terrorism,” and “brutal globalization.” Because he knows that in these matters Macron has the weakness to make an effective counterattack heard.