In the absence of surprises, Monday’s parliamentary elections in Canada have produced what most of the polls predicted: for the fourth consecutive time the liberals have emerged victorious and counting 99% of the votes would have obtained 168 seats in the House of Commons. The second was the Conservative Party, with 144 seats according to projections. However, the party led by the current Prime Minister, Mark Caney, would not have a majority in the House of Commons – 172 seats are needed – although the other parties with representatives in the country’s lower house have declined significantly:The Quebec BQ Bloc has grown from 33 seats to 23, while the New Democratic Party (DP), a social democrat, has grown from 25 to seven.

The votes were actually due in October, but the then Prime Minister Justin Trudeau (2015-2025) resigned in January, and the economist who replaced him, Mark Caney, advanced the date of the elections to Monday. With Trudeau as prime minister, Trump’s threats since he was a White House tenant and the decline in the country’s economic growth significantly reduced support for the Liberal Party among Canadians. After Caney came to power, however, the Liberals have been narrowing the gap to the Conservatives, even reversing it: a sign of this is that the Liberals have achieved better results than in the votes four years ago and have taken more space from the Conservatives than the polls predicted.

Talking about Trump in his first speech

Canada has been one of the countries hardest hit by the trade war waged by U.S. President Donald Trump, who has repeatedly threatened to make Canada the country’s 51st state or annexed it. He has therefore played an important role in the election campaign for the House of Commons. Caney addresses Trump during his appearance in the Ottawa capital after learning about the results of the votes, pointing out that Canada must have another "type of relationship" with the United States: "The relationship that was based on US integration is over."