As in the past, China’s mediation seems to be crucial this time as well. The fact that Menia was negotiated and signed in Kunming, the gigantic capital of the neighbouring Chinese province of Yunnan, is proof of this. The MNDAA’s stronghold, the Kokang region, is bordering on China and the factor to consider is that the ethnic base of this rebel group is mostly Chinese, or at least speaks Chinese, due to its long and troubled history. In part, the MNDAA is also the sprout of the former Communist Party of Burma’s guerrillas.

The reason why China wants to have peace, or something similar, in this border area, however, has little to do with ethnic or ideological affinity.

The immediate incentive is undoubtedly that the armed conflict makes even more subtle a frontier that has always been the scene of twisted exchanges and trafficking. For example, opioid trafficking, historically; and internet scams, lately.

The control of Muse, which forms the twin urban center with Lashio, Kutxkai and, above all, Chinese Ruili, matters a lot to Beijing. Among other reasons, because it is a card that would also be in play at a very remote table: With the Trump administration on the fentanyl sidewalks.

The second reason, most likely, is more profound: China does not see a way out of the current civil war in Myanmar with the victory of the parties; and it is considered that the end of the conflict will finally have to be agreed at a table, in Kunming or somewhere like that... unless the struggle is intended to be chronicled. That would be the worst thing for China.

In fact, Myanmar has been halous for decades in the past. But then China didn’t have as much authority as it is today, even in that border zone.

This conception, however, does not satisfy everyone in the inconspicuous and diverse opposition in Myanmar. As always, the flag of total victory is raised in such cases. When the war is about to enter its fourth year.